Report From Europe: Chinese Data Cheers Markets But NFP Looms Seeking Alpha (blog)

01.09.10

It is interesting to note that the PMI’s from other Asian economies have continued to move lower with both the South Korean and Taiwanese indicators declining. In fact the South Korean export data also show signs of starting to slow from the recent exceptionally strong pace. In addition, US domestic demand is still globally dominant and although Chinese GDP has now reached 45 percent of US GDP, it must be noted that 35 percent of China’s income has gone into savings, suggesting that its domestic demand is only a fraction of US demand. A further slowing of the US economy will derail the global de-coupling story.

So at the risk of sounding like a broken record, this month's early macro could be key in determining direction for the rest of the year should it surprise in either direction. Following today’s weaker than expected ADP jobs number which came in at -10k versus the expected +15k all eyes will be on the key US Non Farm Payrolls data due Friday at 13.30 BST. Despite the data the Dow futures are up over 100 Wednesday with money being put to work at the start of the new quarter and the market turns its attention to the US manufacturing ISM numbers due at 15.00 BTS (expected to come in at 52.7, but watch the employment sub component for a lead into the NFP number Friday). US Vehicle sales numbers at due after the close (8.85m Dom or 11.5m total are the expectations)

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